Al-Anwar 0–1 Khaleej Sart: Result & Stats

Al-Anwar

FT

0 – 1

Khaleej Sart

6/24/2021

Premier League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al-Anwar39%

×Draw25%

Khaleej Sart36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-AnwarExpected goals in this matchKhaleej Sart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.38

Al-Anwar

1.45

Khaleej Sart

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 38 away

1.31

creates per match

0.95

1.81

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Al-Anwar

1.31

Khaleej Sart

0.95

allows per match

Al-Anwar

1.81

Khaleej Sart

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Anwar+0.00on par

Khaleej Sart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Anwar ↓

Khaleej Sart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al-Anwar or draw

64%

Al-Anwar or Khaleej Sart

75%

Draw or Khaleej Sart

61%

Winning margin

Al-Anwar wins by 2+

18%

Khaleej Sart wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Al-Anwar 1+ goals

77%

Al-Anwar 2+ goals

42%

Al-Anwar 3+ goals

18%

Khaleej Sart 1+ goals

75%

Khaleej Sart 2+ goals

40%

Khaleej Sart 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Al-Anwar (draw refunded)

52%

Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Anwar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

Khaleej Sart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Anwar attack 1.31 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Khaleej Sart attack 0.95 + Al-Anwar defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al-Anwar scores more

39%

level

25%

Khaleej Sart scores more

36%

Al-Anwar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Anwar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff