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Al-Anwar vs Al-Tahaddi — Premier League 2019

Al-Anwar
Al-Anwar
FT
1 – 1
Al-Tahaddi
Al-Tahaddi
6/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al-Anwar36%
×Draw27%
Al-Tahaddi36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Anwar
1.23
Al-Tahaddi
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 58 away

creates per match

Al-Anwar
1.31
Al-Tahaddi
0.64

allows per match

Al-Anwar
1.81
Al-Tahaddi
1.14

finishing

Al-Anwar+0.00on par
Al-Tahaddi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Anwar ↓

Al-Tahaddi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al-Anwar or draw
64%
Al-Anwar or Al-Tahaddi
73%
Draw or Al-Tahaddi
64%

Winning margin

Al-Anwar wins by 2+
16%
Al-Tahaddi wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al-Anwar 1+ goals
71%
Al-Anwar 2+ goals
35%
Al-Anwar 3+ goals
13%
Al-Tahaddi 1+ goals
71%
Al-Tahaddi 2+ goals
35%
Al-Tahaddi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al-Anwar (draw refunded)
50%
Al-Tahaddi (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Anwar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

Al-Tahaddi away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Anwar attack 1.31 + Al-Tahaddi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al-Tahaddi attack 0.64 + Al-Anwar defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al-Anwar scores more
36%
level
27%
Al-Tahaddi scores more
36%

Al-Anwar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al-Anwar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Anwar 1–1 Al-Tahaddi

Al-Anwar and Al-Tahaddi drew 1-1 in Premier League on June 4, 2021.