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Al-Anwar vs Al Morooj — Premier League 2019

Al-Anwar
Al-Anwar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Al Morooj
Al Morooj
12/22/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al-Anwar44%
×Draw25%
Al Morooj32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Anwar
1.58
Al Morooj
1.31

Al-Anwar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 26 away

creates per match

Al-Anwar
1.31
Al Morooj
0.81

allows per match

Al-Anwar
1.81
Al Morooj
1.85

finishing

Al-Anwar+0.00on par
Al Morooj+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Anwar ↓

Al Morooj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al-Anwar or draw
68%
Al-Anwar or Al Morooj
75%
Draw or Al Morooj
56%

Winning margin

Al-Anwar wins by 2+
22%
Al Morooj wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al-Anwar 1+ goals
79%
Al-Anwar 2+ goals
47%
Al-Anwar 3+ goals
21%
Al Morooj 1+ goals
73%
Al Morooj 2+ goals
38%
Al Morooj 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Anwar (draw refunded)
58%
Al Morooj (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Anwar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

Al Morooj away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Anwar attack 1.31 + Al Morooj defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.58

Al Morooj attack 0.81 + Al-Anwar defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al-Anwar scores more
44%
level
25%
Al Morooj scores more
32%

Al-Anwar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al-Anwar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Anwar 2–1 Al Morooj

Al-Anwar beat Al Morooj 2-1 in Premier League on December 22, 2023.