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Al Anwar vs Al-Faisaly FC — Division 1 2018

Al Anwar
Al Anwar
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
10/20/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 5Al-Shoulla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Anwar39%
×Draw24%
Al-Faisaly FC37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Anwar
1.59
Al-Faisaly FC
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al Anwar
2.00
Al-Faisaly FC
1.47

allows per match

Al Anwar
1.59
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

finishing

Al Anwar+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Anwar ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al Anwar or draw
63%
Al Anwar or Al-Faisaly FC
76%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
61%

Winning margin

Al Anwar wins by 2+
20%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Anwar 1+ goals
80%
Al Anwar 2+ goals
47%
Al Anwar 3+ goals
21%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
78%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
45%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al Anwar (draw refunded)
52%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Anwar at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Anwar attack 2.00 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Al Anwar defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Anwar scores more
39%
level
24%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
37%

Al Anwar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Anwar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Anwar vs Al-Faisaly FC

Al-Faisaly FC beat Al Anwar 3-1 in Division 1 on October 20, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Shoulla Stadium in Al-Kharj.