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Al-Ansar vs Wefaq Ajdabiya — Premier League 2019

Al-Ansar
Al-Ansar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wefaq Ajdabiya
Wefaq Ajdabiya
3/13/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · East - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Ansar54%
×Draw29%
Wefaq Ajdabiya17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ansar
1.30
Wefaq Ajdabiya
0.60

Al-Ansar creates 117% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

creates per match

Al-Ansar
1.27
Wefaq Ajdabiya
0.47

allows per match

Al-Ansar
0.73
Wefaq Ajdabiya
1.33

finishing

Al-Ansar+0.00on par
Wefaq Ajdabiya+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ansar ↓

Wefaq Ajdabiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al-Ansar or draw
83%
Al-Ansar or Wefaq Ajdabiya
71%
Draw or Wefaq Ajdabiya
46%

Winning margin

Al-Ansar wins by 2+
26%
Wefaq Ajdabiya wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al-Ansar 1+ goals
73%
Al-Ansar 2+ goals
37%
Al-Ansar 3+ goals
14%
Wefaq Ajdabiya 1+ goals
45%
Wefaq Ajdabiya 2+ goals
12%
Wefaq Ajdabiya 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Al-Ansar (draw refunded)
76%
Wefaq Ajdabiya (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ansar at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Wefaq Ajdabiya away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ansar attack 1.27 + Wefaq Ajdabiya defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Wefaq Ajdabiya attack 0.47 + Al-Ansar defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al-Ansar scores more
54%
level
29%
Wefaq Ajdabiya scores more
17%

Al-Ansar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al-Ansar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ansar vs Wefaq Ajdabiya

Al-Ansar beat Wefaq Ajdabiya 2-0 in Premier League on March 13, 2025.