Al Ansar 2–1 Shabab Al Ghazieh: Result & Stats

Al Ansar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shabab Al Ghazieh

9/30/2022

Premier League · Round 4Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Al Ansar67%

×Draw20%

Shabab Al Ghazieh13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AnsarExpected goals in this matchShabab Al Ghazieh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.74

Al Ansar

2.00

Shabab Al Ghazieh

0.74

Al Ansar creates 170% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 49 away

2.16

creates per match

0.78

0.70

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Al Ansar

2.16

Shabab Al Ghazieh

0.78

allows per match

Al Ansar

0.70

Shabab Al Ghazieh

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ansar+0.00on par

Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ansar ↓

Shabab Al Ghazieh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al Ansar or draw

87%

Al Ansar or Shabab Al Ghazieh

80%

Draw or Shabab Al Ghazieh

33%

Winning margin

Al Ansar wins by 2+

42%

Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Ansar 1+ goals

86%

Al Ansar 2+ goals

59%

Al Ansar 3+ goals

32%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals

52%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals

17%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al Ansar (draw refunded)

84%

Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ansar at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.70 · 74 matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.84 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ansar attack 2.16 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.00

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.78 + Al Ansar defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Al Ansar scores more

67%

level

20%

Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more

13%

Al Ansar at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Al Ansar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff