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Al Ansar vs Muharraq — AFC Cup 2018

Al Ansar
Al Ansar
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Muharraq
Muharraq
5/27/2021AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3King Abdullah International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Ansar23%
×Draw23%
Muharraq54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ansar
1.13
Muharraq
1.86

Muharraq creates 65% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al Ansar
1.25
Muharraq
1.60

allows per match

Al Ansar
2.13
Muharraq
1.00

finishing

Al Ansar+0.00on par
Muharraq+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ansar ↓

Muharraq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Ansar or draw
46%
Al Ansar or Muharraq
77%
Draw or Muharraq
77%

Winning margin

Al Ansar wins by 2+
9%
Muharraq wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Al Ansar 1+ goals
68%
Al Ansar 2+ goals
31%
Al Ansar 3+ goals
11%
Muharraq 1+ goals
84%
Muharraq 2+ goals
55%
Muharraq 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Al Ansar (draw refunded)
30%
Muharraq (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ansar at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Muharraq away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ansar attack 1.25 + Muharraq defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Muharraq attack 1.60 + Al Ansar defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al Ansar scores more
23%
level
23%
Muharraq scores more
54%

Muharraq at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Muharraq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Al Ansar 1–3 Muharraq

Muharraq beat Al Ansar 3-1 in AFC Cup on May 27, 2021.

The match was played at King Abdullah International Stadium in Amman.