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Al Ansar vs Dhofar — AFC Cup 2018

Al Ansar
Al Ansar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dhofar
Dhofar
4/9/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium (Bayrūt (Beirut))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Ansar24%
×Draw25%
Dhofar50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ansar
1.00
Dhofar
1.56

Dhofar creates 56% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Al Ansar
1.25
Dhofar
1.00

allows per match

Al Ansar
2.13
Dhofar
0.75

finishing

Al Ansar+0.00on par
Dhofar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ansar ↓

Dhofar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Ansar or draw
50%
Al Ansar or Dhofar
75%
Draw or Dhofar
76%

Winning margin

Al Ansar wins by 2+
9%
Dhofar wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Al Ansar 1+ goals
63%
Al Ansar 2+ goals
26%
Al Ansar 3+ goals
8%
Dhofar 1+ goals
79%
Dhofar 2+ goals
46%
Dhofar 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Al Ansar (draw refunded)
33%
Dhofar (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ansar at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Dhofar away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ansar attack 1.25 + Dhofar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Dhofar attack 1.00 + Al Ansar defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Ansar scores more
24%
level
25%
Dhofar scores more
50%

Dhofar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dhofar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ansar vs Dhofar

Al Ansar and Dhofar drew 1-1 in AFC Cup on April 9, 2018.

The match was played at Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium (Bayrūt (Beirut)).