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Al-Ansar vs Al Shoalah — Division 1 2018

Al-Ansar
Al-Ansar
FT
0 – 1
Al Shoalah
Al Shoalah
10/9/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 8Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Al-Ansar34%
×Draw31%
Al Shoalah35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ansar
0.97
Al Shoalah
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 76 away

creates per match

Al-Ansar
0.86
Al Shoalah
0.88

allows per match

Al-Ansar
1.10
Al Shoalah
1.08

finishing

Al-Ansar+0.00on par
Al Shoalah+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ansar ↓

Al Shoalah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al-Ansar or draw
65%
Al-Ansar or Al Shoalah
69%
Draw or Al Shoalah
66%

Winning margin

Al-Ansar wins by 2+
12%
Al Shoalah wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al-Ansar 1+ goals
62%
Al-Ansar 2+ goals
25%
Al-Ansar 3+ goals
7%
Al Shoalah 1+ goals
63%
Al Shoalah 2+ goals
26%
Al Shoalah 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al-Ansar (draw refunded)
49%
Al Shoalah (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ansar at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Al Shoalah away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.08 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ansar attack 0.86 + Al Shoalah defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Al Shoalah attack 0.88 + Al-Ansar defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Al-Ansar scores more
34%
level
31%
Al Shoalah scores more
35%

Al Shoalah at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Al Shoalah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al-Ansar 0–1 Al Shoalah

Al Shoalah beat Al-Ansar 1-0 in Division 1 on October 9, 2019.

The match was played at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Medina.