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Al Ansar vs Al Kuwait — AFC Cup 2018

Al Ansar
Al Ansar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Kuwait
Al Kuwait
5/18/2022AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Al-Seeb Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Ansar28%
×Draw25%
Al Kuwait46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ansar
1.13
Al Kuwait
1.53

Al Kuwait creates 35% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Al Ansar
1.25
Al Kuwait
0.94

allows per match

Al Ansar
2.13
Al Kuwait
1.00

finishing

Al Ansar+0.00on par
Al Kuwait+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ansar ↓

Al Kuwait →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Ansar or draw
54%
Al Ansar or Al Kuwait
75%
Draw or Al Kuwait
72%

Winning margin

Al Ansar wins by 2+
11%
Al Kuwait wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al Ansar 1+ goals
68%
Al Ansar 2+ goals
31%
Al Ansar 3+ goals
11%
Al Kuwait 1+ goals
78%
Al Kuwait 2+ goals
45%
Al Kuwait 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al Ansar (draw refunded)
38%
Al Kuwait (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ansar at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Al Kuwait away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ansar attack 1.25 + Al Kuwait defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Al Kuwait attack 0.94 + Al Ansar defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Ansar scores more
28%
level
25%
Al Kuwait scores more
46%

Al Kuwait at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Kuwait will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ansar vs Al Kuwait

Al Ansar and Al Kuwait drew 1-1 in AFC Cup on May 18, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Seeb Stadium in Seeb.