Al Ansar 4–3 Al Faisaly: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Al Ansar

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Al Faisaly

2/24/2020

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al Ansar25%

×Draw22%

Al Faisaly53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AnsarExpected goals in this matchAl Faisaly

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.98

Al Ansar

1.29

Al Faisaly

1.98

Al Faisaly creates 53% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.25

creates per match

1.83

2.13

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Al Ansar

1.25

Al Faisaly

1.83

allows per match

Al Ansar

2.13

Al Faisaly

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ansar+0.00on par

Al Faisaly+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ansar ↓

Al Faisaly →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Al Ansar or draw

47%

Al Ansar or Al Faisaly

78%

Draw or Al Faisaly

75%

Winning margin

Al Ansar wins by 2+

10%

Al Faisaly wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Al Ansar 1+ goals

72%

Al Ansar 2+ goals

37%

Al Ansar 3+ goals

14%

Al Faisaly 1+ goals

86%

Al Faisaly 2+ goals

59%

Al Faisaly 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Al Ansar (draw refunded)

32%

Al Faisaly (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ansar at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Al Faisaly away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ansar attack 1.25 + Al Faisaly defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Al Faisaly attack 1.83 + Al Ansar defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Ansar scores more

25%

level

22%

Al Faisaly scores more

53%

Al Faisaly at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Faisaly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff