Al Ansar 3–0 Al Akhaa Al Ahli: Result & Stats

Al Ansar

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

10/30/2022

Premier League · Round 8Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al Ansar64%

×Draw22%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AnsarExpected goals in this matchAl Akhaa Al Ahli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.69

Al Ansar

1.79

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

0.69

Al Ansar creates 159% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 29 away

2.16

creates per match

0.69

0.70

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Al Ansar

2.16

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

0.69

allows per match

Al Ansar

0.70

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ansar+0.00on par

Al Akhaa Al Ahli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ansar ↓

Al Akhaa Al Ahli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Ansar or draw

86%

Al Ansar or Al Akhaa Al Ahli

78%

Draw or Al Akhaa Al Ahli

36%

Winning margin

Al Ansar wins by 2+

37%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Ansar 1+ goals

83%

Al Ansar 2+ goals

53%

Al Ansar 3+ goals

26%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1+ goals

50%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2+ goals

15%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al Ansar (draw refunded)

82%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ansar at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.70 · 74 matches

Al Akhaa Al Ahli away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ansar attack 2.16 + Al Akhaa Al Ahli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.79

Al Akhaa Al Ahli attack 0.69 + Al Ansar defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al Ansar scores more

64%

level

22%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli scores more

14%

Al Ansar at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al Ansar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff