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Al Akhaa Al Ahli vs Tripoli SC — Premier League 2019

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tripoli SC
Tripoli SC
2/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 6Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al Akhaa Al Ahli35%
×Draw31%
Tripoli SC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1.02
Tripoli SC
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.90
Tripoli SC
0.92

allows per match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1.10
Tripoli SC
1.14

finishing

Al Akhaa Al Ahli+0.00on par
Tripoli SC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Akhaa Al Ahli ↓

Tripoli SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Akhaa Al Ahli or draw
66%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli or Tripoli SC
69%
Draw or Tripoli SC
65%

Winning margin

Al Akhaa Al Ahli wins by 2+
13%
Tripoli SC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1+ goals
64%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2+ goals
27%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 3+ goals
8%
Tripoli SC 1+ goals
64%
Tripoli SC 2+ goals
27%
Tripoli SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Akhaa Al Ahli (draw refunded)
50%
Tripoli SC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Akhaa Al Ahli at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Tripoli SC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli attack 0.90 + Tripoli SC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Tripoli SC attack 0.92 + Al Akhaa Al Ahli defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Al Akhaa Al Ahli scores more
35%
level
31%
Tripoli SC scores more
34%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Al Akhaa Al Ahli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Akhaa Al Ahli vs Tripoli SC

Al Akhaa Al Ahli beat Tripoli SC 4-0 in Premier League on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Amin Abdelnour Stadium in Bhamdoun.