Al Akhaa Al Ahli 4–0 Sporting Beirut

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sporting Beirut

5/17/2022

Premier League · Relegation Round - 10Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al Akhaa Al Ahli51%

×Draw27%

Sporting Beirut22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Akhaa Al AhliExpected goals in this matchSporting Beirut

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.85

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

1.45

Sporting Beirut

0.85

Al Akhaa Al Ahli creates 71% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 10 away

0.90

creates per match

0.60

1.10

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

0.90

Sporting Beirut

0.60

allows per match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

1.10

Sporting Beirut

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Akhaa Al Ahli+0.00on par

Sporting Beirut+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Akhaa Al Ahli ↓

Sporting Beirut →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Akhaa Al Ahli or draw

78%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli or Sporting Beirut

73%

Draw or Sporting Beirut

49%

Winning margin

Al Akhaa Al Ahli wins by 2+

26%

Sporting Beirut wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1+ goals

77%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2+ goals

42%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 3+ goals

18%

Sporting Beirut 1+ goals

57%

Sporting Beirut 2+ goals

21%

Sporting Beirut 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Akhaa Al Ahli (draw refunded)

70%

Sporting Beirut (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Akhaa Al Ahli at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Sporting Beirut away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli attack 0.90 + Sporting Beirut defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sporting Beirut attack 0.60 + Al Akhaa Al Ahli defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Akhaa Al Ahli scores more

51%

level

27%

Sporting Beirut scores more

22%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Akhaa Al Ahli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff