Al Ain 1–0 Al Wahda FC: Result & Stats

Al Ain

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Wahda FC

2/18/2024

Presidents Cup · Round of 16Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al Ain55%

×Draw23%

Al Wahda FC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AinExpected goals in this matchAl Wahda FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.08

Al Ain

1.85

Al Wahda FC

1.08

Al Ain creates 71% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.86

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Al Ain

1.86

Al Wahda FC

1.17

allows per match

Al Ain

1.00

Al Wahda FC

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ain+0.00on par

Al Wahda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ain ↓

Al Wahda FC →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al Ain or draw

78%

Al Ain or Al Wahda FC

77%

Draw or Al Wahda FC

45%

Winning margin

Al Ain wins by 2+

32%

Al Wahda FC wins by 2+

Team goals

Al Ain 1+ goals

84%

Al Ain 2+ goals

55%

Al Ain 3+ goals

28%

Al Wahda FC 1+ goals

66%

Al Wahda FC 2+ goals

29%

Al Wahda FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Ain (draw refunded)

72%

Al Wahda FC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Al Ain at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Al Wahda FC away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Al Ain attack 1.86 + Al Wahda FC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Al Wahda FC attack 1.17 + Al Ain defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Ain scores more

55%

level

23%

Al Wahda FC scores more

22%

Al Ain at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Ain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff