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Al-Ain vs Al Baten — Pro League 2018

Al-Ain
Al-Ain
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Al Baten
Al Baten
5/30/2021Pro LeaguePro League · Round 30King Saud Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Ain41%
×Draw23%
Al Baten35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ain
1.67
Al Baten
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Al-Ain
1.40
Al Baten
0.93

allows per match

Al-Ain
2.13
Al Baten
1.95

finishing

Al-Ain+0.00on par
Al Baten+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ain ↓

Al Baten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Al-Ain or draw
65%
Al-Ain or Al Baten
77%
Draw or Al Baten
59%

Winning margin

Al-Ain wins by 2+
21%
Al Baten wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al-Ain 1+ goals
81%
Al-Ain 2+ goals
50%
Al-Ain 3+ goals
23%
Al Baten 1+ goals
78%
Al Baten 2+ goals
45%
Al Baten 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al-Ain (draw refunded)
54%
Al Baten (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ain at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Al Baten away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ain attack 1.40 + Al Baten defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

Al Baten attack 0.93 + Al-Ain defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al-Ain scores more
41%
level
23%
Al Baten scores more
35%

Al-Ain at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al-Ain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ain vs Al Baten

Al Baten beat Al-Ain 4-3 in Pro League on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at King Saud Sport City Stadium in Al Bahah.