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Al-Ain Atawlah vs Al-Adalah — Division 1 2018

Al-Ain Atawlah
Al-Ain Atawlah
FT
1 – 1
Al-Adalah
Al-Adalah
9/19/2018Division 1Division 1 · Round 4King Saud Sport City Stadium (Al Bāḥa (Al Bahah))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al-Ain Atawlah53%
×Draw26%
Al-Adalah20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ain Atawlah
1.48
Al-Adalah
0.80

Al-Ain Atawlah creates 85% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 92 away

creates per match

Al-Ain Atawlah
1.67
Al-Adalah
1.27

allows per match

Al-Ain Atawlah
0.33
Al-Adalah
1.28

finishing

Al-Ain Atawlah+0.00on par
Al-Adalah+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ain Atawlah ↓

Al-Adalah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al-Ain Atawlah or draw
80%
Al-Ain Atawlah or Al-Adalah
74%
Draw or Al-Adalah
47%

Winning margin

Al-Ain Atawlah wins by 2+
27%
Al-Adalah wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al-Ain Atawlah 1+ goals
77%
Al-Ain Atawlah 2+ goals
43%
Al-Ain Atawlah 3+ goals
19%
Al-Adalah 1+ goals
55%
Al-Adalah 2+ goals
19%
Al-Adalah 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al-Ain Atawlah (draw refunded)
72%
Al-Adalah (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ain Atawlah at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Al-Adalah away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ain Atawlah attack 1.67 + Al-Adalah defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al-Adalah attack 1.27 + Al-Ain Atawlah defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al-Ain Atawlah scores more
53%
level
26%
Al-Adalah scores more
20%

Al-Ain Atawlah at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al-Ain Atawlah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al-Ain Atawlah 1–1 Al-Adalah

Al-Ain Atawlah and Al-Adalah drew 1-1 in Division 1 on September 19, 2018.

The match was played at King Saud Sport City Stadium (Al Bāḥa (Al Bahah)).