Al Ahly 3–0 Esperance Tunis: Result & Stats

Al Ahly

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Esperance Tunis

6/26/2021

CAF Champions League · Semi-finalsAl Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Al Ahly58%

×Draw24%

Esperance Tunis17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AhlyExpected goals in this matchEsperance Tunis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.78

Al Ahly

1.66

Esperance Tunis

0.78

Al Ahly creates 113% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 40 away

2.42

creates per match

1.02

0.53

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Al Ahly

2.42

Esperance Tunis

1.02

allows per match

Al Ahly

0.53

Esperance Tunis

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahly+0.00on par

Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly ↓

Esperance Tunis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Ahly or draw

83%

Al Ahly or Esperance Tunis

76%

Draw or Esperance Tunis

42%

Winning margin

Al Ahly wins by 2+

32%

Esperance Tunis wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al Ahly 1+ goals

81%

Al Ahly 2+ goals

49%

Al Ahly 3+ goals

23%

Esperance Tunis 1+ goals

54%

Esperance Tunis 2+ goals

18%

Esperance Tunis 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly (draw refunded)

77%

Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.53 · 45 matches

Esperance Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly attack 2.42 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.66

Esperance Tunis attack 1.02 + Al Ahly defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Ahly scores more

58%

level

24%

Esperance Tunis scores more

17%

Al Ahly at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff