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Al Ahly vs Enppi — League Cup 2021

Al Ahly
Al Ahly
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Enppi
Enppi
A. Zaki 90+1'
3/20/2025League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 1WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Ahly23%
×Draw30%
Enppi47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahly
0.75
Enppi
1.22

Enppi creates 63% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Al Ahly
0.50
Enppi
1.06

allows per match

Al Ahly
1.38
Enppi
1.00

finishing

Al Ahly+0.00on par
Enppi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 68Over: 3268%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 63Yes: 3763%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly ↓

Enppi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Ahly or draw
53%
Al Ahly or Enppi
70%
Draw or Enppi
77%

Winning margin

Al Ahly wins by 2+
7%
Enppi wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al Ahly 1+ goals
53%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
17%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
4%
Enppi 1+ goals
70%
Enppi 2+ goals
34%
Enppi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly (draw refunded)
33%
Enppi (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Enppi away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly attack 0.50 + Enppi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Enppi attack 1.06 + Al Ahly defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Ahly scores more
23%
level
30%
Enppi scores more
47%

Enppi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Enppi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
A. Khaled
51'
A. Reda
63'
Y. Attiyat Allah← A. Maaloul
63'
A. Reda← Karim Nedved
74'
A. Mahmoud← S. Zayed
75'
S. Mohamed← Mohamed Zaalouk
82'
A. Mohareb← A. Mohareb
83'
Afsha← H. Adel
83'
Oufa← A. Zaki
83'
M. Sherif← H. Gahnem
90+1'
A. Zaki
90+2'
O. El Saaiy
90+3'
R. Kabou← T. M. Randrianarijaona

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahly vs Enppi

Enppi beat Al Ahly 1-0 in League Cup on March 20, 2025.

Goals: A. Zaki (90+1').

The match was played at WE Al-Ahly Stadium in Cairo.