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Al Ahly vs El Sharqia Dokhan — Premier League 2018

Al Ahly
Al Ahly
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
El Sharqia Dokhan
El Sharqia Dokhan
6/15/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Ahly61%
×Draw23%
El Sharqia Dokhan16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahly
1.77
El Sharqia Dokhan
0.78

Al Ahly creates 127% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Ahly
2.13
El Sharqia Dokhan
1.00

allows per match

Al Ahly
0.56
El Sharqia Dokhan
1.41

finishing

Al Ahly+0.00on par
El Sharqia Dokhan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly ↓

El Sharqia Dokhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Ahly or draw
84%
Al Ahly or El Sharqia Dokhan
77%
Draw or El Sharqia Dokhan
39%

Winning margin

Al Ahly wins by 2+
35%
El Sharqia Dokhan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Ahly 1+ goals
83%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
53%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
26%
El Sharqia Dokhan 1+ goals
54%
El Sharqia Dokhan 2+ goals
18%
El Sharqia Dokhan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly (draw refunded)
79%
El Sharqia Dokhan (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.56 · 126 matches

El Sharqia Dokhan away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly attack 2.13 + El Sharqia Dokhan defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

El Sharqia Dokhan attack 1.00 + Al Ahly defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al Ahly scores more
61%
level
23%
El Sharqia Dokhan scores more
16%

Al Ahly at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Ahly 4–1 El Sharqia Dokhan

Al Ahly beat El Sharqia Dokhan 4-1 in Premier League on June 15, 2022.

The match was played at WE Al-Ahly Stadium in Cairo.