Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Ahly vs El Gouna FC — Premier League 2018

Al Ahly
Al Ahly
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Gouna FC
El Gouna FC
1/15/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Al Ahly60%
×Draw24%
El Gouna FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahly
1.69
El Gouna FC
0.74

Al Ahly creates 128% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 117 away

creates per match

Al Ahly
2.13
El Gouna FC
0.91

allows per match

Al Ahly
0.56
El Gouna FC
1.24

finishing

Al Ahly+0.00on par
El Gouna FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly ↓

El Gouna FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Ahly or draw
84%
Al Ahly or El Gouna FC
76%
Draw or El Gouna FC
40%

Winning margin

Al Ahly wins by 2+
34%
El Gouna FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Ahly 1+ goals
82%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
50%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
24%
El Gouna FC 1+ goals
52%
El Gouna FC 2+ goals
17%
El Gouna FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly (draw refunded)
79%
El Gouna FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.56 · 126 matches

El Gouna FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly attack 2.13 + El Gouna FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.69

El Gouna FC attack 0.91 + Al Ahly defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al Ahly scores more
60%
level
24%
El Gouna FC scores more
16%

Al Ahly at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Ahly 2–0 El Gouna FC

Al Ahly beat El Gouna FC 2-0 in Premier League on January 15, 2025.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.