Al Ahly 0–0 CR Belouizdad: Result & Stats

Al Ahly

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CR Belouizdad

12/8/2023

CAF Champions League · Group D - 3Borg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al Ahly63%

×Draw23%

CR Belouizdad14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AhlyExpected goals in this matchCR Belouizdad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.69

Al Ahly

1.77

CR Belouizdad

0.69

Al Ahly creates 157% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 26 away

2.42

creates per match

0.85

0.53

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Al Ahly

2.42

CR Belouizdad

0.85

allows per match

Al Ahly

0.53

CR Belouizdad

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahly+0.00on par

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly ↓

CR Belouizdad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Ahly or draw

86%

Al Ahly or CR Belouizdad

77%

Draw or CR Belouizdad

37%

Winning margin

Al Ahly wins by 2+

37%

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Ahly 1+ goals

83%

Al Ahly 2+ goals

53%

Al Ahly 3+ goals

26%

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals

50%

CR Belouizdad 2+ goals

15%

CR Belouizdad 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly (draw refunded)

82%

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.53 · 45 matches

CR Belouizdad away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly attack 2.42 + CR Belouizdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.77

CR Belouizdad attack 0.85 + Al Ahly defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al Ahly scores more

63%

level

23%

CR Belouizdad scores more

14%

Al Ahly at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff