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Al Ahly Shendi vs Tuti — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Ahly Shendi
Al Ahly Shendi
FT
0 – 0
Tuti
Tuti
2/19/2023Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 18Shandi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Al Ahly Shendi43%
×Draw30%
Tuti27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahly Shendi
1.18
Tuti
0.88

Al Ahly Shendi creates 34% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 44 away

creates per match

Al Ahly Shendi
1.11
Tuti
0.84

allows per match

Al Ahly Shendi
0.91
Tuti
1.25

finishing

Al Ahly Shendi+0.00on par
Tuti+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly Shendi ↓

Tuti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Ahly Shendi or draw
73%
Al Ahly Shendi or Tuti
70%
Draw or Tuti
57%

Winning margin

Al Ahly Shendi wins by 2+
18%
Tuti wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Ahly Shendi 1+ goals
69%
Al Ahly Shendi 2+ goals
33%
Al Ahly Shendi 3+ goals
12%
Tuti 1+ goals
59%
Tuti 2+ goals
22%
Tuti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly Shendi (draw refunded)
61%
Tuti (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly Shendi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.91 · 75 matches

Tuti away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly Shendi attack 1.11 + Tuti defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tuti attack 0.84 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Ahly Shendi scores more
43%
level
30%
Tuti scores more
27%

Al Ahly Shendi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Ahly Shendi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahly Shendi vs Tuti

Al Ahly Shendi and Tuti drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Shandi Stadium in Shandi.