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Al Ahly Shendi vs Hilal Obayed — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Ahly Shendi
Al Ahly Shendi
FT
1 – 0
Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
8/23/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 30Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Ahly Shendi44%
×Draw29%
Hilal Obayed27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahly Shendi
1.22
Hilal Obayed
0.89

Al Ahly Shendi creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 56 away

creates per match

Al Ahly Shendi
1.11
Hilal Obayed
0.86

allows per match

Al Ahly Shendi
0.91
Hilal Obayed
1.32

finishing

Al Ahly Shendi+0.00on par
Hilal Obayed+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly Shendi ↓

Hilal Obayed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Ahly Shendi or draw
73%
Al Ahly Shendi or Hilal Obayed
71%
Draw or Hilal Obayed
56%

Winning margin

Al Ahly Shendi wins by 2+
19%
Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Ahly Shendi 1+ goals
70%
Al Ahly Shendi 2+ goals
34%
Al Ahly Shendi 3+ goals
12%
Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
59%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
22%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly Shendi (draw refunded)
62%
Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly Shendi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.91 · 75 matches

Hilal Obayed away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly Shendi attack 1.11 + Hilal Obayed defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Hilal Obayed attack 0.86 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Ahly Shendi scores more
44%
level
29%
Hilal Obayed scores more
27%

Al Ahly Shendi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Ahly Shendi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Ahly Shendi 1–0 Hilal Obayed

Al Ahly Shendi beat Hilal Obayed 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on August 23, 2021.

The match was played at Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium in Umm Durmān.