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Al Ahly Shendi vs Al Hilal Port Sudan — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Ahly Shendi
Al Ahly Shendi
FT
1 – 2
Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
6/5/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 17Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Al Ahly Shendi35%
×Draw30%
Al Hilal Port Sudan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahly Shendi
1.06
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 57 away

creates per match

Al Ahly Shendi
1.11
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.21

allows per match

Al Ahly Shendi
0.91
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.02

finishing

Al Ahly Shendi+0.00on par
Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly Shendi ↓

Al Hilal Port Sudan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Ahly Shendi or draw
65%
Al Ahly Shendi or Al Hilal Port Sudan
70%
Draw or Al Hilal Port Sudan
65%

Winning margin

Al Ahly Shendi wins by 2+
14%
Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Ahly Shendi 1+ goals
65%
Al Ahly Shendi 2+ goals
29%
Al Ahly Shendi 3+ goals
9%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
65%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
29%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly Shendi (draw refunded)
50%
Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly Shendi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.91 · 75 matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly Shendi attack 1.11 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.21 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Al Ahly Shendi scores more
35%
level
30%
Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
35%

Al Ahly Shendi at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Al Ahly Shendi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahly Shendi vs Al Hilal Port Sudan

Al Hilal Port Sudan beat Al Ahly Shendi 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.