Al Ahly Shendi 2–0 Al Ahli Khartoum: Result & Stats

Al Ahly Shendi

FT

2 – 0

Al Ahli Khartoum

12/15/2019

Sudani Premier League · Round 16Shandi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Al Ahly Shendi43%

×Draw31%

Al Ahli Khartoum26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Ahly ShendiExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Khartoum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.82

Al Ahly Shendi

1.14

Al Ahli Khartoum

0.82

Al Ahly Shendi creates 39% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 81 away

1.11

creates per match

0.73

0.91

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Al Ahly Shendi

1.11

Al Ahli Khartoum

0.73

allows per match

Al Ahly Shendi

0.91

Al Ahli Khartoum

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahly Shendi+0.00on par

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly Shendi ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Ahly Shendi or draw

74%

Al Ahly Shendi or Al Ahli Khartoum

69%

Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum

57%

Winning margin

Al Ahly Shendi wins by 2+

18%

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Ahly Shendi 1+ goals

68%

Al Ahly Shendi 2+ goals

32%

Al Ahly Shendi 3+ goals

11%

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals

56%

Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals

20%

Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly Shendi (draw refunded)

62%

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly Shendi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.91 · 75 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly Shendi attack 1.11 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 0.73 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Ahly Shendi scores more

43%

level

31%

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more

26%

Al Ahly Shendi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Ahly Shendi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff