Al Ahli Khartoum vs Al Ahly Shendi — Sudani Premier League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Al Ahli Khartoum33%
Al Ahly Shendi36%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 14 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al Ahli Khartoum ↓
Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al Ahli Khartoum at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches
Al Ahly Shendi away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al Ahli Khartoum attack 1.14 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.96
Al Ahly Shendi attack 0.89 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Al Ahly Shendi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Al Ahly Shendi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
Al-Merreikh II
Al Hilal Port Sudan
Hay Al Wadi
Umm Mughad
Hilal El-Fasher
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
Alamal Atbara
Haidob En Nahud
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Manaqil
Al Shorta
Al-Mergheni
Al Fallah
Al Saham Ad Damer
Al Merreikh
Al Fajr
Al Merreikh El Obeid
Al Taqadom
Al Hilal Karima
Al Rabta Kosti
Al-Ahly MeroweAl Ahli Khartoum
Merreikh Kosti
KoberIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Al Ahli Khartoum host Al Ahly Shendi on Sunday, 5 March 2023 at 17:00. The match is part of the Sudani Premier League 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Al Ahli Khartoum vs Al Ahly Shendi
Al Ahli Khartoum and Al Ahly Shendi drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on March 5, 2023.
The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.