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Al-Ahly Merowe vs Wad Nubawi — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
FT
0 – 0
Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
2/8/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 1Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe39%
×Draw32%
Wad Nubawi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahly Merowe
1.00
Wad Nubawi
0.82

Al-Ahly Merowe creates 22% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 28 away

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.94
Wad Nubawi
0.71

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.93
Wad Nubawi
1.07

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par
Wad Nubawi+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Wad Nubawi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw
71%
Al-Ahly Merowe or Wad Nubawi
68%
Draw or Wad Nubawi
61%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
15%
Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
63%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
26%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
8%
Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
56%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
20%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
57%
Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Wad Nubawi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.94 + Wad Nubawi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Wad Nubawi attack 0.71 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
39%
level
32%
Wad Nubawi scores more
29%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahly Merowe vs Wad Nubawi

Al-Ahly Merowe and Wad Nubawi drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Al-Amal Atbara in Atbara.