Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al-Ahly Merowe vs Wad Hashim Sennar — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
FT
1 – 1
Wad Hashim Sennar
Wad Hashim Sennar
7/1/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Relegation Round - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe47%
×Draw32%
Wad Hashim Sennar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahly Merowe
1.11
Wad Hashim Sennar
0.65

Al-Ahly Merowe creates 71% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.94
Wad Hashim Sennar
0.36

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.93
Wad Hashim Sennar
1.29

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par
Wad Hashim Sennar+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Wad Hashim Sennar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw
79%
Al-Ahly Merowe or Wad Hashim Sennar
68%
Draw or Wad Hashim Sennar
53%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
20%
Wad Hashim Sennar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
67%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
30%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
10%
Wad Hashim Sennar 1+ goals
48%
Wad Hashim Sennar 2+ goals
14%
Wad Hashim Sennar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
68%
Wad Hashim Sennar (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Wad Hashim Sennar away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.94 + Wad Hashim Sennar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Wad Hashim Sennar attack 0.36 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
47%
level
32%
Wad Hashim Sennar scores more
21%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al-Ahly Merowe 1–1 Wad Hashim Sennar

Al-Ahly Merowe and Wad Hashim Sennar drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on July 1, 2019.