Al-Ahly Merowe 0–0 Umm Mughad: Result & Stats

Al-Ahly Merowe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Umm Mughad

1/15/2025

Sudani Premier League · Round 2Dongola Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe31%

×Draw30%

Umm Mughad38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahly MeroweExpected goals in this matchUmm Mughad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.09

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.96

Umm Mughad

1.09

Umm Mughad creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.64

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.64

Umm Mughad

1.18

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

1.00

Umm Mughad

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Umm Mughad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Umm Mughad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw

62%

Al-Ahly Merowe or Umm Mughad

70%

Draw or Umm Mughad

69%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+

11%

Umm Mughad wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals

62%

Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals

25%

Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals

7%

Umm Mughad 1+ goals

66%

Umm Mughad 2+ goals

30%

Umm Mughad 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)

45%

Umm Mughad (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Umm Mughad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.64 + Umm Mughad defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.96

Umm Mughad attack 1.18 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more

31%

level

30%

Umm Mughad scores more

38%

Umm Mughad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Umm Mughad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff