Al-Ahly Merowe 1–1 Al Zoma Khartoum: Result & Stats

Al-Ahly Merowe

FT

1 – 1

Al Zoma Khartoum

11/19/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 9Karima Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe46%

×Draw29%

Al Zoma Khartoum24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahly MeroweExpected goals in this matchAl Zoma Khartoum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.82

Al-Ahly Merowe

1.25

Al Zoma Khartoum

0.82

Al-Ahly Merowe creates 52% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

0.94

creates per match

0.71

0.93

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.94

Al Zoma Khartoum

0.71

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.93

Al Zoma Khartoum

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Al Zoma Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Al Zoma Khartoum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw

76%

Al-Ahly Merowe or Al Zoma Khartoum

71%

Draw or Al Zoma Khartoum

54%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+

21%

Al Zoma Khartoum wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals

71%

Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals

36%

Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals

13%

Al Zoma Khartoum 1+ goals

56%

Al Zoma Khartoum 2+ goals

20%

Al Zoma Khartoum 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)

66%

Al Zoma Khartoum (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Al Zoma Khartoum away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.94 + Al Zoma Khartoum defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Zoma Khartoum attack 0.71 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more

46%

level

29%

Al Zoma Khartoum scores more

24%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff