Al-Ahly Merowe 1–0 Al Rabta Kosti: Result & Stats

Al-Ahly Merowe

FT

1 – 0

Al Rabta Kosti

2/29/2020

Sudani Premier League · Round 23Merowe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe53%

×Draw27%

Al Rabta Kosti20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahly MeroweExpected goals in this matchAl Rabta Kosti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.75

Al-Ahly Merowe

1.41

Al Rabta Kosti

0.75

Al-Ahly Merowe creates 88% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 52 away

0.94

creates per match

0.56

0.93

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.94

Al Rabta Kosti

0.56

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.93

Al Rabta Kosti

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw

80%

Al-Ahly Merowe or Al Rabta Kosti

73%

Draw or Al Rabta Kosti

47%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+

26%

Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals

76%

Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals

41%

Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals

17%

Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals

53%

Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals

17%

Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)

73%

Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.94 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.41

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.56 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more

53%

level

27%

Al Rabta Kosti scores more

20%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff