Al-Ahly Merowe 0–0 Al Ahly Shendi: Result & Stats

Al-Ahly Merowe

FT

0 – 0

Al Ahly Shendi

2/25/2021

Sudani Premier League · Round 13Family Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe36%

×Draw33%

Al Ahly Shendi31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahly MeroweExpected goals in this matchAl Ahly Shendi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.84

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.93

Al Ahly Shendi

0.84

Al-Ahly Merowe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 75 away

0.94

creates per match

0.76

0.93

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.94

Al Ahly Shendi

0.76

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.93

Al Ahly Shendi

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Al Ahly Shendi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Al Ahly Shendi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw

69%

Al-Ahly Merowe or Al Ahly Shendi

67%

Draw or Al Ahly Shendi

64%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+

13%

Al Ahly Shendi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals

61%

Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals

24%

Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals

7%

Al Ahly Shendi 1+ goals

57%

Al Ahly Shendi 2+ goals

21%

Al Ahly Shendi 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)

54%

Al Ahly Shendi (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Al Ahly Shendi away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.91 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.94 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Al Ahly Shendi attack 0.76 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more

36%

level

33%

Al Ahly Shendi scores more

31%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff