Al-Ahly Merowe 1–0 Al Ahli Khartoum: Result & Stats

Al-Ahly Merowe

FT

1 – 0

Al Ahli Khartoum

5/27/2021

Sudani Premier League · Round 16Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe40%

×Draw32%

Al Ahli Khartoum28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ahly MeroweExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Khartoum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.83

Al-Ahly Merowe

1.05

Al Ahli Khartoum

0.83

Al-Ahly Merowe creates 27% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

0.94

creates per match

0.73

0.93

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.94

Al Ahli Khartoum

0.73

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.93

Al Ahli Khartoum

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw

72%

Al-Ahly Merowe or Al Ahli Khartoum

68%

Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum

60%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+

16%

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals

65%

Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals

28%

Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals

9%

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals

56%

Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals

20%

Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)

59%

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.94 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 0.73 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more

40%

level

32%

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more

28%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff