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Al Ahli Wad Medani vs Hilal El-Fasher — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
FT
4 – 2
Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
8/28/2016Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 29Wad Madani Stadium (Wad Medani (Wad Madani))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani41%
×Draw27%
Hilal El-Fasher32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.32
Hilal El-Fasher
1.13

Al Ahli Wad Medani creates 17% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 21 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.69
Hilal El-Fasher
1.19

allows per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.07
Hilal El-Fasher
0.95

finishing

Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par
Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Wad Medani ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Ahli Wad Medani or draw
68%
Al Ahli Wad Medani or Hilal El-Fasher
73%
Draw or Hilal El-Fasher
59%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
19%
Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
73%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
38%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
15%
Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
68%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
31%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
56%
Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Wad Medani at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.69 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.32

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.19 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
41%
level
27%
Hilal El-Fasher scores more
32%

Al Ahli Wad Medani at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Ahli Wad Medani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Ahli Wad Medani 4–2 Hilal El-Fasher

Al Ahli Wad Medani beat Hilal El-Fasher 4-2 in Sudani Premier League on August 28, 2016.

The match was played at Wad Madani Stadium (Wad Medani (Wad Madani)).