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Al Ahli Wad Medani vs Al Merreikh — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
FT
3 – 5
Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
9/30/2016Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 34Wad Madani Stadium (Wad Medani (Wad Madani))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani37%
×Draw24%
Al Merreikh39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.49
Al Merreikh
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.69
Al Merreikh
2.00

allows per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.07
Al Merreikh
1.29

finishing

Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par
Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Wad Medani ↓

Al Merreikh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al Ahli Wad Medani or draw
61%
Al Ahli Wad Medani or Al Merreikh
76%
Draw or Al Merreikh
63%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
17%
Al Merreikh wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
77%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
44%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
19%
Al Merreikh 1+ goals
79%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
45%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
49%
Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Wad Medani at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches

Al Merreikh away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.69 + Al Merreikh defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.49

Al Merreikh attack 2.00 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
37%
level
24%
Al Merreikh scores more
39%

Al Merreikh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahli Wad Medani vs Al Merreikh

Al Merreikh beat Al Ahli Wad Medani 5-3 in Sudani Premier League on September 30, 2016.

The match was played at Wad Madani Stadium (Wad Medani (Wad Madani)).