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Al Ahli Wad Medani vs Al Fallah — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Fallah
Al Fallah
1/24/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 4Abu Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani60%
×Draw25%
Al Fallah15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.58
Al Fallah
0.64

Al Ahli Wad Medani creates 147% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.84
Al Fallah
0.43

allows per match

Al Ahli Wad Medani
0.84
Al Fallah
1.33

finishing

Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par
Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Wad Medani ↓

Al Fallah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Ahli Wad Medani or draw
85%
Al Ahli Wad Medani or Al Fallah
75%
Draw or Al Fallah
40%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
33%
Al Fallah wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
79%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
47%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
21%
Al Fallah 1+ goals
47%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
14%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
80%
Al Fallah (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Wad Medani at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.84 + Al Fallah defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Al Fallah attack 0.43 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
60%
level
25%
Al Fallah scores more
15%

Al Ahli Wad Medani at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Ahli Wad Medani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahli Wad Medani vs Al Fallah

Al Ahli Wad Medani beat Al Fallah 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 24, 2025.

The match was played at Abu Hamad Stadium in Abu Hamad.