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Al Ahli vs Manama — Premier League 2019

Al Ahli
Al Ahli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Manama
Manama
5/14/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Madinat 'Isa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Al Ahli36%
×Draw27%
Manama36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli
1.25
Manama
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 62 away

creates per match

Al Ahli
1.19
Manama
1.32

allows per match

Al Ahli
1.19
Manama
1.31

finishing

Al Ahli+0.00on par
Manama+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli ↓

Manama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Ahli or draw
64%
Al Ahli or Manama
73%
Draw or Manama
64%

Winning margin

Al Ahli wins by 2+
16%
Manama wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Ahli 1+ goals
71%
Al Ahli 2+ goals
36%
Al Ahli 3+ goals
13%
Manama 1+ goals
71%
Manama 2+ goals
36%
Manama 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli (draw refunded)
50%
Manama (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 72 matches

Manama away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli attack 1.19 + Manama defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Manama attack 1.32 + Al Ahli defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Ahli scores more
36%
level
27%
Manama scores more
36%

Al Ahli at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Ahli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Ahli 1–1 Manama

Al Ahli and Manama drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Madinat 'Isa Stadium in Manama.