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Al Ahli vs East Riffa — Premier League 2019

Al Ahli
Al Ahli
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
East Riffa
East Riffa
2/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Al Ahli35%
×Draw29%
East Riffa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli
1.13
East Riffa
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 61 away

creates per match

Al Ahli
1.19
East Riffa
1.10

allows per match

Al Ahli
1.19
East Riffa
1.07

finishing

Al Ahli+0.00on par
East Riffa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli ↓

East Riffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Ahli or draw
64%
Al Ahli or East Riffa
71%
Draw or East Riffa
65%

Winning margin

Al Ahli wins by 2+
14%
East Riffa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Ahli 1+ goals
68%
Al Ahli 2+ goals
31%
Al Ahli 3+ goals
11%
East Riffa 1+ goals
68%
East Riffa 2+ goals
32%
East Riffa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli (draw refunded)
49%
East Riffa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 72 matches

East Riffa away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli attack 1.19 + East Riffa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

East Riffa attack 1.10 + Al Ahli defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Ahli scores more
35%
level
29%
East Riffa scores more
36%

East Riffa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "East Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Ahli 1–0 East Riffa

Al Ahli beat East Riffa 1-0 in Premier League on February 8, 2023.

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.