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Al Ahli vs Al Riffa — Premier League 2019

Al Ahli
Al Ahli
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Al Riffa
Al Riffa
4/29/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Al Ahli27%
×Draw26%
Al Riffa47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli
1.08
Al Riffa
1.50

Al Riffa creates 39% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 71 away

creates per match

Al Ahli
1.19
Al Riffa
1.82

allows per match

Al Ahli
1.19
Al Riffa
0.97

finishing

Al Ahli+0.00on par
Al Riffa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli ↓

Al Riffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Ahli or draw
53%
Al Ahli or Al Riffa
74%
Draw or Al Riffa
73%

Winning margin

Al Ahli wins by 2+
10%
Al Riffa wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al Ahli 1+ goals
66%
Al Ahli 2+ goals
29%
Al Ahli 3+ goals
10%
Al Riffa 1+ goals
78%
Al Riffa 2+ goals
44%
Al Riffa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli (draw refunded)
37%
Al Riffa (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 72 matches

Al Riffa away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli attack 1.19 + Al Riffa defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Riffa attack 1.82 + Al Ahli defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Ahli scores more
27%
level
26%
Al Riffa scores more
47%

Al Riffa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahli vs Al Riffa

Al Riffa beat Al Ahli 3-2 in Premier League on April 29, 2026.