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Al Ahli Tripoli vs Olympic Azzaweya — Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Tripoli
Al Ahli Tripoli
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Olympic Azzaweya
Olympic Azzaweya
6/4/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Al Ahli Tripoli57%
×Draw25%
Olympic Azzaweya18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Tripoli
1.58
Olympic Azzaweya
0.77

Al Ahli Tripoli creates 105% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 65 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Tripoli
2.00
Olympic Azzaweya
1.03

allows per match

Al Ahli Tripoli
0.51
Olympic Azzaweya
1.17

finishing

Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par
Olympic Azzaweya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Tripoli ↓

Olympic Azzaweya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Ahli Tripoli or draw
82%
Al Ahli Tripoli or Olympic Azzaweya
75%
Draw or Olympic Azzaweya
43%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+
30%
Olympic Azzaweya wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals
79%
Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals
47%
Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals
21%
Olympic Azzaweya 1+ goals
54%
Olympic Azzaweya 2+ goals
18%
Olympic Azzaweya 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)
76%
Olympic Azzaweya (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Tripoli at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.51 · 76 matches

Olympic Azzaweya away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 2.00 + Olympic Azzaweya defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Olympic Azzaweya attack 1.03 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al Ahli Tripoli scores more
57%
level
25%
Olympic Azzaweya scores more
18%

Al Ahli Tripoli at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al Ahli Tripoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Ahli Tripoli 4–1 Olympic Azzaweya

Al Ahli Tripoli beat Olympic Azzaweya 4-1 in Premier League on June 4, 2025.