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Al Ahli Tripoli vs Aschat — Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Tripoli
Al Ahli Tripoli
FT
1 – 0
Aschat
Aschat
11/21/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al Ahli Tripoli67%
×Draw21%
Aschat12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Tripoli
1.85
Aschat
0.63

Al Ahli Tripoli creates 194% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 20 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Tripoli
2.00
Aschat
0.75

allows per match

Al Ahli Tripoli
0.51
Aschat
1.70

finishing

Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par
Aschat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Tripoli ↓

Aschat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Ahli Tripoli or draw
88%
Al Ahli Tripoli or Aschat
79%
Draw or Aschat
33%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+
40%
Aschat wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals
84%
Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals
55%
Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals
28%
Aschat 1+ goals
47%
Aschat 2+ goals
13%
Aschat 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)
85%
Aschat (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Tripoli at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.51 · 76 matches

Aschat away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 2.00 + Aschat defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.85

Aschat attack 0.75 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Al Ahli Tripoli scores more
67%
level
21%
Aschat scores more
12%

Al Ahli Tripoli at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Al Ahli Tripoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahli Tripoli vs Aschat

Al Ahli Tripoli beat Aschat 1-0 in Premier League on November 21, 2021.