Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Ahli Tripoli vs Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid — Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Tripoli
Al Ahli Tripoli
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
12/18/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Ahli Tripoli67%
×Draw21%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Tripoli
1.94
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
0.70

Al Ahli Tripoli creates 177% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Tripoli
2.00
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
0.88

allows per match

Al Ahli Tripoli
0.51
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
1.88

finishing

Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Tripoli ↓

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Ahli Tripoli or draw
87%
Al Ahli Tripoli or Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
79%
Draw or Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
33%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+
41%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals
86%
Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals
58%
Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals
30%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 1+ goals
50%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 2+ goals
16%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)
84%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Tripoli at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.51 · 76 matches

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 2.00 + Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid attack 0.88 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Al Ahli Tripoli scores more
67%
level
21%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid scores more
13%

Al Ahli Tripoli at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Al Ahli Tripoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahli Tripoli vs Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid

Al Ahli Tripoli beat Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 4-0 in Premier League on December 18, 2025.