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Al Ahli Tripoli vs Al Dahra Tripoli FC — Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Tripoli
Al Ahli Tripoli
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
4/9/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al Ahli Tripoli61%
×Draw25%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Tripoli
1.61
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
0.65

Al Ahli Tripoli creates 148% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 9 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Tripoli
2.00
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
0.78

allows per match

Al Ahli Tripoli
0.51
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
1.22

finishing

Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par
Al Dahra Tripoli FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Tripoli ↓

Al Dahra Tripoli FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Ahli Tripoli or draw
85%
Al Ahli Tripoli or Al Dahra Tripoli FC
75%
Draw or Al Dahra Tripoli FC
39%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+
33%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals
80%
Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals
48%
Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals
22%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 1+ goals
48%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 2+ goals
14%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)
80%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Tripoli at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.51 · 76 matches

Al Dahra Tripoli FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 2.00 + Al Dahra Tripoli FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Al Dahra Tripoli FC attack 0.78 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al Ahli Tripoli scores more
61%
level
25%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC scores more
15%

Al Ahli Tripoli at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al Ahli Tripoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Ahli Tripoli 1–0 Al Dahra Tripoli FC

Al Ahli Tripoli beat Al Dahra Tripoli FC 1-0 in Premier League on April 9, 2026.