Al Ahli Tripoli 2–0 Al Ahli Benghazi

Al Ahli Tripoli

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Al Ahli Benghazi

7/25/2025

Premier League · Final Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Al Ahli Tripoli46%

×Draw27%

Al Ahli Benghazi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Ahli TripoliExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Benghazi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.00

Al Ahli Tripoli

1.38

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.00

Al Ahli Tripoli creates 38% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 73 away

2.00

creates per match

1.49

0.51

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Al Ahli Tripoli

2.00

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.49

allows per match

Al Ahli Tripoli

0.51

Al Ahli Benghazi

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par

Al Ahli Benghazi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Tripoli ↓

Al Ahli Benghazi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Ahli Tripoli or draw

73%

Al Ahli Tripoli or Al Ahli Benghazi

73%

Draw or Al Ahli Benghazi

54%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+

22%

Al Ahli Benghazi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals

75%

Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals

40%

Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals

16%

Al Ahli Benghazi 1+ goals

63%

Al Ahli Benghazi 2+ goals

26%

Al Ahli Benghazi 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)

63%

Al Ahli Benghazi (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Tripoli at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.51 · 76 matches

Al Ahli Benghazi away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.75 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 2.00 + Al Ahli Benghazi defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Ahli Benghazi attack 1.49 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Ahli Tripoli scores more

46%

level

27%

Al Ahli Benghazi scores more

27%

Al Ahli Tripoli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Ahli Tripoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff