Al Ahli Khartoum 1–0 Merreikh El-Fasher

Al Ahli Khartoum

FT

1 – 0

Merreikh El-Fasher

8/14/2021

Sudani Premier League · Round 28Al-Merreikh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Al Ahli Khartoum43%

×Draw30%

Merreikh El-Fasher26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Ahli KhartoumExpected goals in this matchMerreikh El-Fasher

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.83

Al Ahli Khartoum

1.15

Merreikh El-Fasher

0.83

Al Ahli Khartoum creates 39% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 48 away

1.14

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Al Ahli Khartoum

1.14

Merreikh El-Fasher

0.67

allows per match

Al Ahli Khartoum

1.00

Merreikh El-Fasher

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Merreikh El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Khartoum ↓

Merreikh El-Fasher →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Ahli Khartoum or draw

74%

Al Ahli Khartoum or Merreikh El-Fasher

70%

Draw or Merreikh El-Fasher

57%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+

18%

Merreikh El-Fasher wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals

68%

Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals

32%

Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals

11%

Merreikh El-Fasher 1+ goals

56%

Merreikh El-Fasher 2+ goals

20%

Merreikh El-Fasher 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)

62%

Merreikh El-Fasher (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Khartoum at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Merreikh El-Fasher away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 1.14 + Merreikh El-Fasher defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Merreikh El-Fasher attack 0.67 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more

43%

level

30%

Merreikh El-Fasher scores more

26%

Al Ahli Khartoum at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Ahli Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff