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Al Ahli Khartoum vs Al Hilal Omdurman — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
FT
0 – 1
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
10/4/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 31Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Al Ahli Khartoum23%
×Draw27%
Al Hilal Omdurman50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Khartoum
0.89
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.44

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 62% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 64 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.14
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.88

allows per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.00
Al Hilal Omdurman
0.63

finishing

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par
Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Khartoum ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Ahli Khartoum or draw
50%
Al Ahli Khartoum or Al Hilal Omdurman
73%
Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman
77%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
8%
Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
59%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
22%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
6%
Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
76%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
42%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
32%
Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Khartoum at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 1.14 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.89

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 1.88 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
23%
level
27%
Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
50%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahli Khartoum vs Al Hilal Omdurman

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Al Ahli Khartoum 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.