Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Ahli Khartoum vs Al Hilal Manaqil — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
FT
1 – 1
Al Hilal Manaqil
Al Hilal Manaqil
2/13/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al Ahli Khartoum30%
×Draw31%
Al Hilal Manaqil39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Khartoum
0.91
Al Hilal Manaqil
1.07

Al Hilal Manaqil creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.14
Al Hilal Manaqil
1.00

allows per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.14
Al Hilal Manaqil
0.67

finishing

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par
Al Hilal Manaqil+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Khartoum ↓

Al Hilal Manaqil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Ahli Khartoum or draw
61%
Al Ahli Khartoum or Al Hilal Manaqil
69%
Draw or Al Hilal Manaqil
70%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
11%
Al Hilal Manaqil wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
60%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
23%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
6%
Al Hilal Manaqil 1+ goals
66%
Al Hilal Manaqil 2+ goals
29%
Al Hilal Manaqil 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
44%
Al Hilal Manaqil (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Khartoum at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Al Hilal Manaqil away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 1.14 + Al Hilal Manaqil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Al Hilal Manaqil attack 1.00 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
30%
level
31%
Al Hilal Manaqil scores more
39%

Al Hilal Manaqil at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Hilal Manaqil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Ahli Khartoum 1–1 Al Hilal Manaqil

Al Ahli Khartoum and Al Hilal Manaqil drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 13, 2026.