Al Ahli Khartoum 1–1 Al Hilal Kadougli

Al Ahli Khartoum

FT

1 – 1

Al Hilal Kadougli

10/6/2020

Sudani Premier League · Round 32Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Al Ahli Khartoum47%

×Draw28%

Al Hilal Kadougli25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Ahli KhartoumExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Kadougli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.90

Al Ahli Khartoum

1.35

Al Hilal Kadougli

0.90

Al Ahli Khartoum creates 50% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 43 away

1.14

creates per match

0.79

1.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Al Ahli Khartoum

1.14

Al Hilal Kadougli

0.79

allows per match

Al Ahli Khartoum

1.00

Al Hilal Kadougli

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Khartoum ↓

Al Hilal Kadougli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Ahli Khartoum or draw

75%

Al Ahli Khartoum or Al Hilal Kadougli

72%

Draw or Al Hilal Kadougli

53%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+

22%

Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals

74%

Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals

39%

Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals

15%

Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals

59%

Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals

23%

Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)

65%

Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Khartoum at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Al Hilal Kadougli away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 1.14 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.79 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more

47%

level

28%

Al Hilal Kadougli scores more

25%

Al Ahli Khartoum at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Ahli Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff