Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Ahli Khartoum vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
FT
1 – 1
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
11/30/2018Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 2Khartoum Stadium (Khartoum)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Al Ahli Khartoum46%
×Draw29%
Al-Ahly Merowe25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.25
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.85

Al Ahli Khartoum creates 47% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 74 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.14
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.70

allows per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.00
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.35

finishing

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Khartoum ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Ahli Khartoum or draw
75%
Al Ahli Khartoum or Al-Ahly Merowe
71%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
54%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
21%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
71%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
36%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
13%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
57%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
21%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
64%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Khartoum at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 1.14 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
46%
level
29%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
25%

Al Ahli Khartoum at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Ahli Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Ahli Khartoum 1–1 Al-Ahly Merowe

Al Ahli Khartoum and Al-Ahly Merowe drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on November 30, 2018.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium (Khartoum).